Predictions for Oscars 2009.

As a film fan, I find the Oscars both fascinating and reprehensible. Reprehensible in that they turn works of art into racehorses, and fascinating in that they reveal interesting trends in not only the Academy voters but in the honored films themselves. Plus, every once in a while, they will look past the usual crop and honor pictures that don’t compromise and act as honest representations of the artists behind them. Of course, I’m talking about this past ceremony, with masterpieces like There Will Be Blood and No Country for Old Men taking center-stage while they would be utterly ignored in past ceremonies.

Films that bold and daring are noticably absent from pre-Oscar hype (Although I’m holding my breath for Benjamin Button.) I loved Slumdog Millionaire but it’s not Boyle’s magnum opus by any means, and for once the notion of a career Oscar for a director I love (I will defend Scorsese’s win for The Departed till the day I die, despite the sloppy third act.), is bitter-sweet for me. Must it be this film? Where was his consideration for Trainspotting? Even 28 Days Later and Sunshine deserved a Best Director nod even if the screenplays were rather weak.

If Slumdog wins then it is undoubtedly a sign of the nation shifting away from extreme pessimism to hopeless optimism. In other words, from Bush to Obama. It’s not hard to connect the Oscar winners of the past to the feelings of the American people at the time; everyone was miserable in the ’70s, everyone felt great in the ’80s. This decade is no different, from our desire for escapism with Lord of the Rings to our desire to marinate in the misery with No Country. So many Americans have gotten high off of Obama’s victory whilst accepting that the grim, lasting effects of the Bush years are here to stay for quite some time.

Which other contenders reflect these feelings? There’s Milk, but if Brokeback Mountain couldn’t secure the Best Picture trophy, this film doesn’t have a shot in Hell. Lots of bloggers are throwing it in for WALL-E but because of the deeply patronizing Best Animated Feature category, I can’t see myself joining the choir for this one (Otherwise I would instantly get behind it.) Am I forgetting anything else? All the other contenders look like your usual melodramatic fares, from Revolutionary Road to The Reader.

Then there’s The Dark Knight. Ah yes. The film that nearly knocked Titanic off its undeserved Highest-Grossing Film title and seemed to finally unite audiences and critics for the first time in years. We all know Heath Ledger is a lock; that goes without saying. I’m also certain that a Best Picture nomination is in order given its staggering box-office success. But here we are, back into the territory of the paranoia and pessimism of the Bush years. In one month, those years will be but a distant memory. Americans are masters of cultural amnesia, and perhaps the film’s relevance will die as soon as Obama takes the oath on Inaguaration Day.

I’m sure my connections to the American political framework will sound absurd to some but you only need to look at the previous films. The connections are there; always have been, always will be. Only when this notion is embraced will the Oscars start to make a little more sense, especially when we come upon what will be a very interesting and off-beat Oscar ceremony.

Without further ado:

BEST PICTURE

The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
The Dark Knight
Milk
Slumdog Millionaire*
Revolutionary Road, The Reader, or Frost/Nixon

BEST DIRECTOR

Danny Boyle – Slumdog Millionaire*
David Fincher – The Curious Case of Benjamin Button
Ron Howard – Frost/Nixon
Christopher Nolan – The Dark Knight
Gus Van Sant – Milk

BEST ACTOR

Leonardo DiCaprio – Revolutionary Road
Frank Langella – Frost/Nixon
Sean Penn – Milk
Mickey Rourke – The Wrestler*
Brad Pitt – Benjamin Button, Richard Jenkins – The Visitor, Clint Eastwood – Gran Torino

BEST ACTRESS

Anne Hathaway – Rachel Getting Married*
Sally Hawkins – Happy-Go-Lucky
Kristin Scott-Thomas – I’ve Loved You So Long
Meryl Streep – Doubt
Kate Winslet – Revolutionary Road

BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

Josh Brolin – Milk
Robert Downey Jr. – Tropic Thunder
Heath Ledger – The Dark Knight*
Michael Shannon – Revolutionary Road
Philip Seymour Hoffman – Doubt, Michael Sheen – Frost/Nixon or Liev Schreiber – Defiance

BEST SUPPORTING ACTRESS

Penelope Cruz – Vicky Christina Barcelona*
Viola Davis – Doubt
Marisa Tomei – The Wrestler
Kate Winslet – The Reader
Taraji P. Henson – Benjamin Button or Debra Winger – Rachel Getting Married

BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

Dustin Lance Black – Milk*
Charlie Kaufman – Synecdoche, New York
Mike Leigh – Happy-Go-Lucky
Jenny Lumet – Rachel Getting Married
Andrew Stanton – WALL-E
Martin McDonagh – In Bruges

BEST ADAPTED SCREENPLAY

Simon Beaufoy – Slumdog Millionaire*
Justin Haythe – Revolutionary Road
Peter Morgan – Frost/Nixon
Eric Roth – Benjamin Button
John Patrick Shanley – Doubt

As always, none of these predictions rely on an exact science, so feel free to pick them apart if you like. As William Goldman brilliantly put it, “Nobody knows anything.” That said, I am confident in the predictions I’ve made, with the exception of Best Actress which I’m always uncertain about for some reason. Thoughts on that category are especially appreciated.